3 weeks to go…

With 3 weeks to go Cheltenham is all I can think about. I find myself drifting into day dreams of Facile Vega, Galopin Des Champs, Run Wild Fred stomping up that famous hill and landing the spoils. Hopefully the dreams become reality!

It’s nice to see that last weeks pick (Queens Brook) is running tomorrow in the Grade 3 Quevega hurdle. Importantly, this was the route Elliot took to victory last year with Black Tears. I hope she goes well for anyone that took the price on her last week.

Moving on, my value pick this week is stablemate THREE STRIPE LIFE in the Ballymore, currently at 12/1 NRNB or 16/1 without.

Firstly, I have been extensively monitoring the Betfair exchange market over the last week. TSL drifted all the way to 130 for the Supreme whilst has been stable at around 21 for the Ballymore. He’s currently rated 144 and so will be too high for the Martin Pipe. The Ballymore is the most logical race for me.

TSL was Gordon’s number one bumper horse at Cheltenham last year and was sent off a price of 10/1 (the shortest of the Cullentra mob). He finished a strong staying 4th, beaten 8lengths. The step up to 2miles 5 furlongs will not be a problem and according to his breeding will bring out further improvement.

Gordon Elliot stated last week “He came out of the Dublin Racing Festival very well. That was just his third run over hurdles and he’s improving all the time. I’m very happy with him.” It’s clear to see that Gordon thinks a lot of him. To run only three times over hurdles, run in two Grade ones and not be out of the first two in any of them…. is mega!

The first of TSL’s Grade one runs came at Leopardstown over Christmas. He made a terrible mistake 2 out, then was trapped in a pocket turning in and still powered home to only be beaten narrowly. He was the best horse in the race for me. In the second Grade one he was beaten 6lengths by Sir Gerhard. He would’ve got closer if he didn’t take the last hurdle with him…

It seems to me the at the business end of competitive races over 2miles, TSL’s jumping lacks. This would be better suited to the naturally slower pace in a Ballymore. On the whole he is a very fluent jumper however, but jumping at 2mile speed doesn’t suit him.

The market in the Ballymore is relatively open too. Those ahead of him include Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Kilcruit, Minella Cocooner who won’t go. Walking on Air has only had one run. Journey with me is too slow & Sir Gerhard & Dysart Dynamo will be split up. Stage Star won what looks a poor Challow (also English trained) and Ginto seems to me to be more of a staying type.

The most important point for me is that, due to the close personal connection with the owners, Davy Russell will be on board. There is no better man for me around Cheltenham currently than Davy, so this is a massive plus.

THREE STRIPE LIFE – BALLYMORE

12/1 NRNB EW

16/1 without NRNB EW