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Another exciting year of antepost punting draws to a close, meaning it’s time to look forward to what 2024 might offer. I’ve put together a selection of horses that I think are essential for any antepost book; these are considered as ‘must bets’, whilst some longer priced selections can be found under the ‘speculative bets’ section.

For this write up I thought I would ask popular Twitter profile and all round good guy, Road To Cheltenham (@RoadCheltenham), to put together a few horses to keep an eye out for this season. You can read his thoughts below. Make sure you follow RTC on Twitter for any all the latest updates throughout the upcoming season.

*BP – Best price currently on offer

‘Must’ bets

Marine Nationale – Arkle Novice Chase (BP 4/1)

Whilst this seems a boring pick and a skinny price I think currently the price is as fair as you’re likely to see in these markets and is one to chip away at during the summer period until the season starts again properly.

The Arkle market is currently being propped up by Constitution Hill who is a general 7/4 shot for this race. Personally, I can’t see this 175 rated hurdler switching to the larger obstacles and wasting a year running in the novice division. Nicky has made it quite clear that he wants to keep him over hurdles and in this case I firmly believe the trainer will get his wish. If you also believe this to be the case; what price does Marine Nationale become once that news is confirmed? 2/1 approx would be my guess.

This unbeaten son of French Navy has improved hugely as the season has progressed which culminated in success over previous Champion Bumper winner Facile Vega, in the Supreme Novice hurdle. Marine Nationale was imperious that day, travelling strongly in behind and beat Facile Vega for toe after the last flight of hurdles. A brilliant ride by O’Sullivan and such a young pair of hands, destined to be a star.

Trainer Barry Connell said immediately after Cheltenham victory “I think we’ll come back here for the Arkle next year.” Plans can obviously change but currently I would have this as the most obvious route.

Corbetts Cross – Brown Advisory Novice Chase (BP 16/1)

Sent off 9/4 fav in what looked a deep renewal of the Albert Bartlett, this Emmet Mullins trained mount was being held together by jockey Mark Walsh before jinxing to his right and refusing at the last hurdle. Although he never finished, I believe there was still more in the tank based on the jockeys body language. Had he of won, he wouldn’t be a 16/1 shot for this race.

I was hugely taken with Corbetts Cross’ run at Naas in February. I thought the trip was on the short side for him that day, and I had big respect for market rival, Found a Fifty. Class prevailed and it was the sign of a top animal being able to operate at the shorter distance. Shortly after this run, super owner JP swooped in to purchase the winner, the fee has not been reported but I would imagine he cost a large sum.

With Emmet confirming that Corbetts Cross will go chasing this year, the 3mile novice race looks the obvious target. I could see him progressing into a future Gold Cup horse, this is how highly I rate him. Given the connections I can’t imagine prices will hold once the season starts up.

Irish Point – Turners Novices Chase (BP 16/1)

Irish Point is a horse that is clearly thought a lot of at Cullentra. This novice ran 6 times over hurdles last season, 5 of which were graded contests. In the process he managed to pick up a Grade 3, Grade 1 and two silver medals in Grade 1 efforts. Only a 5 year old, Davy Russell described Irish Point as “very immature” in the early part of the season & avoided Cheltenham for “ a huge confidence booster at Naas” which sparked the life back into the Robcur owned gelding.

He got his day in the sun at the Aintree festival winning the Mersey Top Novices in a stylish fashion. The same race that ill-fated Three Stripe Life won 12 months prior. That gives us an indication of where Gordon thinks he sits in the pecking order of his novices.

It’s also worth noting that Irish Point came with a huge reputation from the French flat scene. He won a Grade 1 on the flat as a 3 Year old beating Il Est Francais. He’s boosted the form, take a look for yourself if you aren’t already aware.

Gordon has a love affair with the Turners at Cheltenham and likes to target the race with his best, but of course, the horse shaped elephant in the room… Impaire et Passe; Willie said straight after the Ballymore that they’d look at the Champion Hurdle with him (so there’s bingo involved) and also that run at Punchestown didn’t fill me with too much confidence. At 9/2 I can leave him for now. However being 16/1, I think Irish Point is a must for Antepost books in a race that usually cuts up.

Gerri Colombe – Gold Cup (BP 8/1)

Gerri was a hard luck story in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham this year, young jockey Jordan Gainford might have given eventual winner The Real Whacker too much rope in front before charging him down after the last fence. Too much ground to make up meant Gerri had to settle for second place on this occasion. I can’t imagine they shall make the same mistake again.

A stout and high class stayer I think Gerri Colombe has all the attributes needed for the Gold Cup test, his run at Aintree showed this. A nearly 8 length victor of a race that has had good indicators towards the Gold Cup in years gone by. It’s also worth noting that but for an official winning distance of a shoulder, Gerri Colombe would be unbeaten in 10 starts over all obstacles, reiterating how classy an individual he is.

The profile for the Gold Cup that I tend to move towards is a Champion Novice moving into open company or a horse that hasn’t attempted that Gold Cup test before; they have such a good record in the race. The Gold Cup takes an almighty amount out of a horse and can in a way bottom them or break their will for racing. So whilst assessing current champion & antepost favourite Galopin Des Champs this must be taken into consideration. See Minella Indo & A Plus Tard as recent examples of this.

I genuinely believe that Galopins best chance of regaining the crown is to take the ‘Al Boum Photo’ route of a Boxing Day run and then straight to Cheltenham fresh. I think it’s currently an open race, and of those not tried in this division, Gerri is by far the best bet.

‘Speculative’ bets

Impervious – RyanAir Chase (BP 12/1)

I am well aware that Impervious is more than likely to head to defend her crown in the Mares Chase, but, ‘Which race SHOULD Impervious run in?’ Is a question that’s sure to divide opinions.

When you look at the RyanAir market currently there can be question marks or lines out through the vast majority of them.

• Jonbon – Nicky said likely to stick to 2miles.
• Allaho – Not been seen since April 22 & will be 10.
• Envoi Allen – inconsistent, rare repeat winners & will be 10.
• El Fabiolo – Champion Chase.
• Shishkin – likely to go up in trip.
• Gerri Colombe – Gold Cup

I think it could be a really poor renewal with the Turners last season not looking like the strongest of races. Impervious is clearly a top class mare and would take all the beating with that vital 7lbs allowance against the boys. I would expect that trainer Colm Murphy will campaign her towards the RyanAir and if she shows she’s not good enough then they will revert back to Mares company.

I really do think the race would suit her, a strong paced 2 & 1/2 miles on a track that she’s already won over. She could be a superstar in the making, in what looks a poor renewal. The 12/1 is certainly worth chancing.

Maskada – Mares Chase (BP 25/1)

I think the price of 25/1 for 2023 Grand Annual winner Maskada is wildly overpriced. I urge you to go back and watch her run; she won it so easily, staying on stoutly in horrid ground and winning by over 6 lengths. The horse in second, Dinoblue (who was 7/2 fav), was in receipt of weight and has gone on to frank the form since. She was swatted aside that day but yet is currently 9 points shorter than the Henry De Bromhead mare at 16/1 for the Mares Chase.

As I said before, Impervious could well end up here but Maskada is an improving mare and her RPR of 155 is already good enough to put her in the frame for this race. For anyone who is interested the EW double is 285/1 with Bet365 for Maskada & Impervious.

Down Memory Lane – Ballymore Novices Hurdle (BP 33/1)

It is difficult to really get much of a grip on these bumper horses but Down Memory Lane was visually one of the better performances I saw last year. He travelled powerfully into the race and scooted away in a very nice manner in his only start under rules. Gordon has since acquired the horse that finished third that day and he’s gone onto win, franking the form in some way. He’s a walk in the park out of a presenting mare, he should have no issue going up to the Ballymore distance next season.

Gordon seems to lean slightly towards the Ballymore with his good ones, since 2017 he has had 3 favourites for this race whereas he hasn’t had a favourite for the Supreme in this time frame. A small sample size but shows somewhat that he likes his better animals to step up to the Ballymore trip. Owned by JP McManus, I’d expect Down Memory Lane to be right up there with Gordon’s best novice hurdlers and therefore 33/1 is worth chancing.

Mirazur West – Supreme Novices Hurdle (BP 20/1)

Full brother to the top class Ferny Hollow, trained by Willie Mullins & owned by JP McManus…. need I say more?

In all seriousness, Mirazur West’s debut was very impressive. He breezed away from what I thought was a decent bumper field in a matter of strides.

A maiden hurdle win should be a normality and, given his connections, he will most likely be cut to a single figure price for the Supreme. 20/1 could look good value in a few months time.

Nick Rockett – Brown Advisory Novices Chase (BP 25/1)

Nick Rockett came from the PTP fields with a big reputation at the start of last season and he showed what the fuss was about in the Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Fairyhouse in April.

He breezed in that day winning by 15 lengths. To my eye he looks every inch a staying chaser and will improve for the larger obstacles Interestingly, the Fairyhouse Grade 2 he won is the same race that Willie ran Al Boum Photo, Shaneshill & Bronn. These all turned up in the 3 mile novice chase at Cheltenham the following season.

Given his Fairyhouse performance and the connections I am astounded that 25/1 is available. This could look a great price when the season starts up again.

Recap:

‘Must’ bets

• Marine Nationale – Arkle Novice Chase 4/1
• Corbetts Cross – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 16/1
• Irish Point – Turners Novices Chase 16/1
• Gerri Colombe – Gold Cup 8/1

‘Speculative’ bets

• Impervious – RyanAir Chase 12/1
• Maskada – Mares Chase 25/1
• Down Memory Lane – Ballymore Novice Hurdle 33/1
• Mirazur West – Supreme Novice Hurdle 20/1
• Nick Rockett – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 25/1

ROAD TO CHELTENHAM

5 to follow for 2023/2024

Whether you’re willing to admit it or not, the 2023/24 jumps season is fast approaching and the Road to Cheltenham is officially underway. For many, it started about five minutes after the 2023 Festival finished.

Willie Mullins has raided France, Gordon Elliott has been spending at the sales and the wily Nicky Henderson has made a number of astute moves in the search for the next Constitution Hill.

Without further ado, let’s get stuck into my five horses to follow in the 23/24 National Hunt season. You might even get a wildcard selection at the end…

BRAVEMANSGAME

I’m not a huge backer of Paul Nicholls horses but if you’re going to follow one all season then who better than 2022 King George VI Chase winner Bravemansgame?

He went from strength to strength last season, winning the Charlie Hall Chase before proving too good at Kempton.From there, all roads led to the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

While he was second best behind Galopin Des Champs that day, his run in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April gives me hope that he could reverse the form.

Harry Cobden was frustrated after a poor jump – arguably the horse’s first bad jump of the season – cost him a golden opportunity to level the score with his Cheltenham conqueror.

The King George will no doubt be his primary aim in December but Nicholls hasn’t had a proper Gold Cup horse since Silviniaco Conti and expect him to have him 100% for March.

BARRY THE BUTCHER

A number of minor, niggling issues kept Barry The Butcher off the racecourse last season but all being well he will make up for lost time in the autumn.

He was all the rage this time last year, with his point to point form working out particularly well. However, Croke Park was well beat by You Outta Know and that has slightly dented the enthusiasm for Barry The Butcher.

He is a 5-year-old turning six and Henry de Bromhead is unlikely to waste a year in bumpers. In fact, the word on the grapevine is Barry The Butcher will go novice hurdling this year.

Given his connections, I’m taking a punt on Barry The Butcher ending up in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and the 25/1 available at the time of writing is far too big.

MIRAZUR WEST

I was looking forward to seeing Mahon’s Way after Cheveley Park Stud coughed up £360,000 at the Tattersalls Cheltenham November sale but I was really impressed at the way Mirazur West put that race to bed.

He travelled strongly throughout the race and I’d argue that you can mark the performance up given his tendency to pull – you can certainly tell he’s a full brother to Ferny Hollow.

Derek O’Connor was always in control though and he was full of horse, justifying a strong market move on the day. It is worth noting here that Mahon’s Way was reportedly looking rather large in the parade ring before the race.

While the Cheveley Park horse undoubtedly wants both a trip and a fence, Mirazur West looks speedy enough and he could take high in the Closutton pecking order in the novice hurdle division.

SALVATOR MUNDI

My ridiculously early pick for the 2024 Triumph Hurdle (take that with a pinch of salt, we’re only in July!) is the Willie Mullins-trained Salvator Mundi.

Owned by Joe and Marie Donnelly, Salvator Mundi finished second on his one and only start in the prestigious Listed Prix Wild Monarch at Auteuil in April.

While he was unable to fend off Sir Gino, another who will run in the Donnelly silks but with Nicky Henderson, the two pulled some 10 lengths clear of the field.

Connections moved quickly to snap him up and he looks the right mould of juvenile that the Closutton maestro regularly does so well with.

The likes of State Man and Gaelic Warrior started off in this race and while I’m not saying Salvator Mundi is destined to hit those heights, he certainly has bags of potential.

BIOLUMINESCENCE

The vibes were very strong for this mare ahead of her eagerly awaited debut at Limerick and while she was beaten fair and square that day, she did have valid excuses.

She wasn’t actually in the yard all that long before making her debut under rules while Junta Marvel had been at Closutton for a longer period and was perhaps more settled and race-ready.

The daughter of Walk In The Park bolted up in her point to point in November and the performance was taking enough to convince JP McManus to snap her up in a private sale.

The experience at Limerick will not be lost on her and I’mwell and truly keeping the faith as she embarks upon a novice hurdling campaign in the autumn.

Out of an Old Vic mare and a point winner over three miles, the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham may be a tad sharp for her but she looks classy and perhaps the 2m4f G1 Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse in April may be the race for her.

Wildcard – VIRGINIA STORM

Before I get stuck into Virginia Storm, I must give a hat tip to Rob Acheson and both Cillian and James at We’re GoingChasing – my interest in this fella came after watching their Robcour YouTube stable tour.

When I say he could be anything, I truly mean he could be anything. A son of leading German sire Soldier Hollow, he will don the Robcour silks and will be trained by Henry de Bromhead.

Mags O’Toole signed the docket for €260,000 at the Arqana Arc sale in October 2022 and he has been given time to adapt to his new surroundings.

He is still a maiden on the flat despite racing 11 times, though he has some rock solid form behind some smart types – including 2021 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe winner Torquator Tasso.

The dam, Virginia Sun, is by Doyen and won the 2015 German St Leger while his full sister Virginia Joy was rated as high as 118 on the flat and was just seven lengths behind Tuesday at the 2022 Breeders Cup.

Expected to start off some time before Christmas, Virginia Storm could be a very useful prospect if that flat form translates to hurdles.

It’s been a while since we last spoke and so, I thought it would be appropriate to take a look over some of the Xmas entries/declarations, and try to work out what could happen over the next few days to shake up the Cheltenham antepost markets. My findings are as below.

Kempton – 26th December

The Kauto Star Novices Chase (1:20) is where I will start. This sees Nicholls’ 3mile Novice stars take each other on, McFabulous & Gelino Bello. Just like stable jockey, Harry Cobden, I would also side with McFabulous. He will take all the beating for me after a couple of impressive wins at Exeter & Newbury.

Nicholls horses are difficult to back for Cheltenham due to the trainers habits to avoid the meeting for Grade 1 glory at Aintree. However, the 3mile novice race at Cheltenham currently looks a very open contest and so the 16/1 is very likely to get a cut if he were to do the business at Kempton.

I would think that Galia Des Liteaux will be the one to follow him home. The Skelton trained mare left a huge impression on me after her last run when winning at Bangor by 9 lengths as easy as she liked.

If she were to run well on Boxing Day the 25/1 about the Mares Chase at Cheltenham will not last long. The mares Chase looks somewhat a weak contest with the top two in the betting being novices and the horses in behind the betting being beaten since.

The King George (2:30) is a race I always look forward to year on year, and this year it looks like we have a great clash between L’Homme Presse & Bravemansgame. Nicholls has had this race in mind for BMG for 18months or so and he will be trained to peak for this occasion, this is his Gold Cup. He was mightily impressive in the Kauto Star novices Chase last year, also. However, it feels like more of an after thought from the Venetia Williams team. For that reason, I will side with Bravemansgame.

The King George is a great trial for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham (although, less so in recent years) however, there’s two things putting me off backing BMG for Cheltenham; firstly, Nicholls saying that he should have run in the shorter race at the festival & secondly, he also said that he wouldn’t run in the Gold Cup due to not liking the course (at the start of the season). I would really question if the horse could stay 3miles 2 furlongs over an undulating track and a stiff finish.

Alternatively, if L’Homme Presse was beaten and his price were to drift, I would be happy to get involved. As I said, the King George isn’t the number 1 target for the season and I really think he can be moulded into a Gold Cup type. For me, he has all the attributes but might just be caught for speed on a flat track like Kempton.

The only other horse I would briefly give a mention to on the Kempton card would be Theatre Glory who runs in the 3:40. She’s lugging around a huge weight but if she were to win this race then I would suggest she is a live one for the mares hurdle at Cheltenham. Currently 25/1 for the race.

Leopardstown – 26th December

The 12:00 on the card is as strong a maiden hurdle as you will see all season. Parmenion is the Mullins representative, and is a horse that I’ve had in the tracker for a long time. A winner on the flat as a 3YO and bought by the Donnelly’s for €230,000 in 2019. I think he will take all the beating in the same race that connections released subsequent Grade 1 winner, State Man.

The rivals must of course be respected, High Definition, a top class recruit from the flat for Joseph O’Brien, & Foxfire Glow, a nice recruit from France for top owner JP McManus but was beaten first time up at prohibitive odds. I’m sure there will be plenty of winners to come out of this maiden to say the least.

Any kind of win with ease for Parmenion and the 33/1 for the Supreme could become single figure digits. I would also suggest taking a look at the market without Facile Vega, for which he is currently 16/1.

The 1:10 on the card is a Grade 2 for Juveniles. The current favourite Lossiemouth demands ultimate respect, she was ever so impressive last time at Fairyhouse. I would give a brief mention to Gala Marceau. Her runs in France are quite striking, and being thrown into a Grade 2 first time up for Mullins shows confidence in her ability. All the reports from her home work are positive and so I’d think a good run will see the 20/1 Triumph Hurdle disappear.

Limerick – 26th December

Only the one to keep an eye on for me at Limerick. Gerri Colombe runs in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase (2:40). I was massively impressed with his debut over fences at Fairyhouse, he jumped with efficiency and quickened up nicely after the last fence. I would think that was as strong a maiden Chase you’ll see.

Gerri will relish the conditions & deep ground, which I couldn’t say about Kilcruit with confidence. As discussed already, the Brown advisory is an open contest currently and so I would imagine the 14/1 will be drastically reduced with a victory here.

Dad’s Fancy?

As it’s Christmas, and therefore a time for family, I thought I would ask my old man for his Christmas tip. He’s the reason I love racing, so it’s only fair to give him a mention on this post. PATS FANCY 10/1 for the Welsh National.

Dad said “The decision to run over hurdles the last day was quite telling as they were clearly protecting the Chase mark. Looking back through the form, the second to Bravemansgame at Newbury would suggest he’s a well handicapped horse.”

Whatever you’re doing this Christmas, I hope you have a good one! Enjoy the brilliant racing on offer, I’ll be back with more posts in 2023.

All the best!

With another successful Cheltenham out of the way and the curtains drawing on Royal Ascot, it seems like the perfect time to start the pilgrimage to the greatest show on turf.

As a side note, I have tried to keep short priced horses out of these lists to the best I can.

‘Must’ bets

Bets I would suggest you need in your book if you don’t already.

Brandy Love – Mares Hurdle 7/1

The brilliantly named Brandy Love was vying for favouritism in this years Mares Novice hurdle at Cheltenham before drifting in the market due to the imminent NR.

Only a stone bruise, this mare followed up with an 8 length schooling over Cheltenham festival winner Love Envoi at Fairyhouse in April. I have no doubt that BL would’ve won at Cheltenham and would therefore currently be much shorter for 2023 by now.

Going left handed is a must for Brandy as she has a tendency to shift to her left. She showed that in the Solerina around Fairyhouse where she was beaten by her stablemate Allegorie De Vassy, who is another classy mare from the Mullins camp. Brandy was the best horse that day and was the choice of stable jockey Paul Townend, which shows how he ranks them. She wasn’t stopping at the line that day and will love the Cheltenham course and trip.

Being trained by the master of the mares, and with all current form I think BRANDY LOVE is a horse that must be in every antepost book @ 7/1 for the Mares Hurdle.

Three Stripe Life – Turners Novices Chase 16/1

Three Stripe Life is somewhat of an underrated horse in my opinion. He ran in 5 Grade one’s last season with a form of 22213. That is seriously consistent, and even more so when you consider that the first two Grade one’s were over a trip too short for him.

Pinpointing a race can be difficult antepost but I would say the mid-distance looks perfect for him. The trainer (Gordon Elliott) loves the mid-distance novice race at Cheltenham. He’s had 4 runners in the last 5 years, if you include Envoi Allen, and his form in the race reads 311F (worth noting that Envoi was sent off 4/9F). Whereas, Elliott, doesn’t have as much of a love affair with the 3mile novice race. Only 5 runners in the last 10 years and one placing isn’t the kind of record that would fill you with hope.

TSL is clearly a top level animal and should command respect. 16/1 is cracking value for a Grade one winning novice hurdler in a race that will most likely seriously cut up. He’s double the price of Sir Gerhard, and in my opinion, there are lots of question marks over his final destination.

Ahoy Senor – Gold Cup 10/1

Firstly, I would like to say that I really think this horse needs better ground. If you look through his form, the best runs have all come on at least ‘Good to Soft’. In usual Cheltenham conditions, the ground come Gold Cup day will be absolutely ideal for him.

Taking this theory further, he ran a really good race in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham this year, on bottomless ground, staying longer than the proverbial mother-in-law. He then trounced Cheltenham winner L’Homme Presse when they met at Aintree on fresher ground by 18 lengths.

Second season chasers have the best record in the Gold Cup and at the prices Ahoy Senor stands out to me as the best value.

Better Days Ahead – Champion Bumper 20/1

Before you scroll past, I am fully aware that advising a bet on the Champion Bumper in the summer is crazy but this is a seriously talented animal. This son of Milan achieved an impressive RPR of 95 in his PTP win and was subsequently sold for £350,000 to Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud (owners of American Mike, Zanahiyr etc).

With only being 4years old currently, I would expect that BDA will be kept to bumpers next season and will take high rank in that division. Gordon loves the Champion Bumper and will target horses towards this race from a long way out and I think Better Days Ahead will be his number one. Gordon will use the bumper at Down Royal during the October meeting for his main bumper candidate, keep an eye out for entries on that.

Gaillard Du Mesnil – National Hunt Chase 7/1

Gaillard Du Mesnil has quickly become ‘banker’ material for me. He achieved a career best RPR of 161 on his last run of the season, the Irish National, when finishing 3rd giving massive weight away. The RPR is important to note here because 161 is good enough to win the National Hunt Chase 9 years out of the last 10. The only loss would’ve been this year to Stattler who achieved 164. GDM would’ve finished second.

It must be noted that his career high RPR was achieved over a marathon trip which shows he will have no issue staying, and clearly improved for the trip.

He’s also still a young horse at only 6 years old. He’s achieved a lot and gained vital experience which he will have in hand over other contenders. The stats would be in his favour too as 7 year olds have the best record in the race, winning 5 of the last 10 runnings. As GDM did not win last season over fences he will remain a novice chaser for the upcoming season which therefore qualifies him for this race.

To me, he’s not got to improve that much next season to be considered a ‘good thing’. The race has changed code of recent years and the classier horses are coming to the fore I.e. Galvin & Stattler. GDM would fit perfectly into that bracket as he is already a Grade one winning hurdler, and also finished third in the Irish National & the Brown Advisory Novices Chase.

‘Speculative’ bets

Let’s have some fun… bets that could look excellent come 2023.

An Tobar – Ballymore Novices Hurdle 25/1

This one was seriously close to being placed in the first list, but, novice hurdlers can be tricky to work out and so I have decided to place him on the subs bench, like Jack Grealish, he’s a super sub to have in your team.

This half-brother to the sadly missed ELLE EST BELLE was very impressive in his sole PTP start where he earned an RPR of 94, again, very high. He looked the perfect blend of speed and stamina that day, injecting the pace between 2 & 3 out before winning by an eased down 20 lengths.

2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th & 7th have all come out and won since. The horse in 7th won his PTP by 12 lengths and he was beaten by just over 30 lengths by An Tobar.

Now trained Henry De Bromhead, and already owned by Robcur, we would think they would go down the Ballymore route; like they have with Bob Olinger and Journey with Me in the last two seasons.

Walking on Air – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 50/1

Walking on Air is a horse that I really feel Henderson is taking his time with. He was quoted as saying “He’s nice, but had some hold-ups – no big problems – and he’s going to be spectacular. He’ll jump a fence and might be very exciting in a year or two” after his debut hurdle win at Newbury.

He’s a horse that there were whispers about in the early part of the season and that Newbury run showed what he can do. A 13 length demolition over his closest rival secured him as a single figure price for the Ballymore Novices hurdle at Cheltenham.

He wasn’t seen after that run until the Aintree festival due to a few niggly problems, where he ran no sort of a race and never travelled a yard. As I said, I really think they have been wrapping him in cotton wool as they know he will be a smashing chaser. The quote above would agree with this sentiment. I really think this lad could be running in a Gold Cup later in his career.

Nicky does refer to the fact that he thinks WOA would need a trip and would be a stayer, but I wouldn’t put anyone of having a look at the 50/1 also available for the shorter Turners Novices Chase.

Jet Powered – Supreme Novices Hurdle 20/1

This son of Jet Away was described as an “Absolute Superstar” by his PTP trainer Cormac Farrell. Having seen his sole PTP run (an 8 length victory – RPR 93) it was how easily he picked up and went past the leader that impressed me, despite slow jumps at 2 & 3 out.

Since that day, Jet Powered has been purchased for 350,000gns (£367,500 roughly) by the Donnelly’s and moved to Nicky Henderson. With Henderson’s usual patterns, he would tend to send any top Novices to the Supreme, a race he likes a lot; he has trained 3 winners of in the last 7 runnings and trained the 1-2 this year.

Success also runs in the family for Jet Powered as his half sister WESTERNER LADY won 10 out of 17 starts and was clearly a talented mare.

Finding the winner of the Supreme this far our is an extremely tough ask. I have to admit, Jet Powered is shorter than I thought he would be but, at 20/1, I still think he’s worth taking. There has been plenty of money around for this horse which is a positive and I’m sure that this price will look good next season.

Journey With Me – Brown Advisory Novices Chase 25/1

I really am a fan of this price. Journey With Me always looked a 3mile chaser and he’s made for this race. To my eye, it looked like the hurdles were getting in the way last year and he didn’t really know how to jump them. Very awkward and gangly. Fences will bring out the best of him.

I would think this target will be pretty nailed on too (if he’s as good as they hope) as he was described as a “galloper” for most of last season and was then finally stepped up to 3 miles at the Punchestown festival. I’d put a line through that final performance though, he clearly wasn’t right, and the trainers strike rate at the time was beyond abysmal.

He does have some nice form in the book over hurdles, however. Beating Minella Crooner, Kilcruit, Falcon Eight, Choice of words & O’Toole is all relatively decent form. It’s also easy to forget that he fell at the last when about to finish third in the Ballymore behind Sir Gerhard & Three Stripe Life. It’s a good run considering he was up with the pace the whole way and was just beaten by the two horses with a quicker turn of foot.

Recap:

‘Must’ bets

• Brandy Love – Mares Hurdle 7/1
• Three Stripe Life – Turners Novices Chase 16/1
• Ahoy Senor – Gold Cup 10/1
• Better Days Ahead – Champion Bumper 20/1
• Gaillard Du Mesnil – National Hunt Chase 7/1

‘Speculative’ bets

• An Tobar – Ballymore Novices hurdle 25/1
• Walking on Air – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 50/1
• Jet Powered – Supreme Novices hurdle 20/1
• Journey With Me – Brown Advisory Novices Chase 25/1

With 3 weeks to go Cheltenham is all I can think about. I find myself drifting into day dreams of Facile Vega, Galopin Des Champs, Run Wild Fred stomping up that famous hill and landing the spoils. Hopefully the dreams become reality!

It’s nice to see that last weeks pick (Queens Brook) is running tomorrow in the Grade 3 Quevega hurdle. Importantly, this was the route Elliot took to victory last year with Black Tears. I hope she goes well for anyone that took the price on her last week.

Moving on, my value pick this week is stablemate THREE STRIPE LIFE in the Ballymore, currently at 12/1 NRNB or 16/1 without.

Firstly, I have been extensively monitoring the Betfair exchange market over the last week. TSL drifted all the way to 130 for the Supreme whilst has been stable at around 21 for the Ballymore. He’s currently rated 144 and so will be too high for the Martin Pipe. The Ballymore is the most logical race for me.

TSL was Gordon’s number one bumper horse at Cheltenham last year and was sent off a price of 10/1 (the shortest of the Cullentra mob). He finished a strong staying 4th, beaten 8lengths. The step up to 2miles 5 furlongs will not be a problem and according to his breeding will bring out further improvement.

Gordon Elliot stated last week “He came out of the Dublin Racing Festival very well. That was just his third run over hurdles and he’s improving all the time. I’m very happy with him.” It’s clear to see that Gordon thinks a lot of him. To run only three times over hurdles, run in two Grade ones and not be out of the first two in any of them…. is mega!

The first of TSL’s Grade one runs came at Leopardstown over Christmas. He made a terrible mistake 2 out, then was trapped in a pocket turning in and still powered home to only be beaten narrowly. He was the best horse in the race for me. In the second Grade one he was beaten 6lengths by Sir Gerhard. He would’ve got closer if he didn’t take the last hurdle with him…

It seems to me the at the business end of competitive races over 2miles, TSL’s jumping lacks. This would be better suited to the naturally slower pace in a Ballymore. On the whole he is a very fluent jumper however, but jumping at 2mile speed doesn’t suit him.

The market in the Ballymore is relatively open too. Those ahead of him include Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Kilcruit, Minella Cocooner who won’t go. Walking on Air has only had one run. Journey with me is too slow & Sir Gerhard & Dysart Dynamo will be split up. Stage Star won what looks a poor Challow (also English trained) and Ginto seems to me to be more of a staying type.

The most important point for me is that, due to the close personal connection with the owners, Davy Russell will be on board. There is no better man for me around Cheltenham currently than Davy, so this is a massive plus.

THREE STRIPE LIFE – BALLYMORE

12/1 NRNB EW

16/1 without NRNB EW

The biggest week of the year is fast approaching, excitement is building and the ‘shrewds’ are coming out of hibernation. Perusing through the ante post markets is a dismal affair and finding any value is energy sapping; but fear not, as for the next 4 weeks I will be scanning through the markets to bring to you the best value on offer!

When looking for value in races the first thing I like to do is evaluate how strong or weak a favourite is as they are the horses propping up the prices for those in behind. My first find comes on the Tuesday in the Mares hurdle. So, whilst I respect Telmesomethinggirl, I think she’s vulnerable.

Telmesomethinggirl has run twice this season and finished 5th & 3rd. Now she has given plenty of weight away on both occasions and she was certainly the best horse in the race at Leopardstown but she’s just not for me. Rachel gave her a peach of a ride in the Mares novice hurdle last year & the race fell apart in my opinion.

Outside of Telmesomethinggirl there is not an awful lot in the market that looks to have the star quality required to win a graded race at the festival. It is a poor mares hurdle in my opinion and a very open race.

So, I have come down on the side of the Gordon Elliot trained QUEENS BROOK. I think she is overpriced at 16/1 best price.

Before I put my case forward, I will just read you the quote from Elliot’s November stable tour. “It wouldn’t shock me if she won the mares’ hurdle at Cheltenham. She has loads of class and that’s her aim”.

Now, it’s not very often that Gordon would talk up a horse like this, actually suggesting his mare (who is rated as low as 131) could win the Mares hurdle. It also needs to be noted that the trainer won this same race last year with Black Tears so he knows what kind of mare he needs to win the race. There’s no doubt in my mind that the 2021 renewal was stronger than what we will see in 4 weeks time.

Queens Brook has some really nice form in the book too. As a bumper horse she finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. She was only 5 lengths behind Ferny Hollow & 3 lengths behind Appreciate it. That is form of a very high standard.

In her novice season it’s well documented that she didn’t live up to Elliots expectations. She ran 3 times that season and whilst she wasn’t disgraced, Elliot has said she wasn’t herself.

We have seen her twice this season. She was beaten narrowly first time up in her “pipe opener” by Lunar Display (who is a decent horse in her own right) after a 330 day break. A decent effort in my book.

Next she faced Ciel de Neige, who she saw off by 4 lengths. It was workmanlike but the pursuers were left trailing by at least 10 lengths back. Ciel de neige has done an awful lot to hold up the form as he’s won 3 times since and is now rated 148 over fences!

In October 2020 Elliot was quoted as saying “I’d say when she gets two-and-a-half miles she’s going to be class, in a true run race” and I really think the race will be run to suit her at Cheltenham. I’d imagine Stormy Ireland will set a brisk pace at the front, and Queens Brook will stay on strongly up the hill, just like she did in the 2020 Champion Bumper.

With Elliot confirming Queens Brook is fit and on track for the Mares hurdle, the 16/1 is great value. She will be bang there, and as Elliot said I wouldn’t be surprised if she won it!

Selection – QUEENS BROOK EW 16/1 – Mares Hurdle.

The National hunt season is now upon us and in full flow. Whether it’s the big grade one chasers, novice hurdlers or even handicappers and bumper horses, everyone’s got something to look forward to!

I personally always love this time of year because I look through my antepost portfolio with enthusiasm and excitement. I often like to think that juicy antepost multiples ‘keep me warm’ throughout the Winter.

This week we are feasted to brilliant cards at both Punchestown & Cheltenham with a host of graded races, including the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle. This is always a great early indication on potential Champion Hurdle candidates.

Friday 2:20 Cheltenham

It is truly abysmal that a novice Chase at Cheltenham (at this time of year) has only 2 runners. A match bet between MY DROGO (4/11) vs Gin On Lime (9/4). We all know how much the Dan Skelton team think of My Drogo and so it would be bitterly disappointing if he is not able to put Gin On Lime in her place, especially considering she is actually having to give My Drogo 1lb instead of getting her 7lb mares allowance. We will learn a lot about My Drogo’s likely Cheltenham Festival aim after the race. The Marsh is the most likely race currently with him being an 8/1 shot for the race.

Gin On Lime is a very fair mare and if it wasn’t for the swing in the weights I would be a lot more positive on her chances. She is much better going left handed and jumps a fence with great fluency. For that reason I think she will be seen to great effect in the Mares Chase at the festival and the current 14/1 (possibly bigger after Friday) is a decent bet.

Saturday 12:00 Punchestown

I just wanted to touch on this race briefly because I wanted to compare it to the Cheltenham race above. Bob Olinger, the superstar of the Cheltenham festival makes his return in a 14 runner beginners Chase. In comparison this makes us British look rather measly. Is there any wonder why the Irish come over and clean up all our Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival?!

Saturday 12:30 Cheltenham

The first race on the card on Saturday sees the return of Chepstow winner and Paul Nicholls trained MAGISTRATO (7/4) who on debut in France was second to Porticello. He is now trained by Gary Moore and is the 16/1 second fav for the Triumph hurdle.

On his debut for Nicholls, Magistrato raced keenly from the front before settling down to win by 12lengths to Skelton’s Rocky Man. Magistrato responded really well to pressure and looked to have a great turn of foot to put distance between himself and Rocky Man in a matter of strides. I was surprised to see he is a current 7/4 shot for the race on Saturday as I thought he would be closer to evens. He is one I’m really looking forward to seeing again.

Sunday 2:20 Cheltenham

It has to be said the Put The Kettle On is one of the most underrated race horses currently in training. She was sent off a 17/2 shot in her Champion Chase win last season despite collecting an Arkle Novices Chase & a Schloer Chase on the run up to the big one in March.

However, it is another that has taken my eye. NUBE NEGRA (2/1) hit a bit of trouble in running and got boxed in on the turn to home. I do think a change of tactics and better positioning and he would’ve won that race. Dan Skelton will have learned a lot from that run and I’m sure he won’t make the same mistake again on Sunday. Nube Negra also has a great record fresh, and with the Skelton team in fine form I think he can reverse the result with PTKO.

Sunday 1:30 Punchestown

The declarations and betting hasn’t opened for this mares hurdle yet and so I will keep this one brief but I really fancy HEAVEN HELP US here. She is officially the highest rated in the race with a rating of 144. The interesting part is she is in receipt of 11lbs from Mares novice hurdle winner Telmesomethinggirl and 4lb from Gauloise. Due to the less fashionable connections of this Coral Cup winner I would hope we could get a slight price about her.

Sunday 2:05 Punchestown

ECHOES IN RAIN (1/1) is a horse I have been really excited about seeing back this season. Currently rated 150 over hurdles (including allowances) she is one of the top novices to remain over hurdles for the upcoming season. She won two Grade 2’s last year and managed to pick up a Grade 1 at the Punchestown festival. Her performance of the season was certainly beating M C Muldoon by 15 lengths whilst pretty much still being on the bridle.

Echoes in Rain is currently rated 12lbs inferior to her stablemate Saldier (3/1) but yet she seems to be the number one dart for the Mullins team according to the betting. EIR opened on the betting at 9/4 and was backed into 10/11 with some bookies. This makes me think either Saldier is not running or Echoes in Rain is the real deal!

As for the rest of the field, Abacadabras struggled with his jumping at Aintree and I’m not sure the forms up to much anyway and Sharjah will be needing his first run. If she does manage to put this lot away then I’m sure the general 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle will be slashed.

This week we are taking a look at the remaining 2 days of the Cheltenham festival and assessing the chances of the current ante post favourites in the Grade one’s. As before, all prices are taken from Bet365’s ante post markets and are correct of time of writing.

I have skipped the Triumph hurdle because I don’t have enough information about the Juveniles coming through. I will aim to get a full write up done of the race once I have more information on purchases etc.

Marsh Novice Chase – Bob Olinger 4/1

Current ante post favourite Bob Olinger was mightily impressive in his novice hurdle campaign last year winning on 3 out of 4 starts and picking up two Grade ones in the process. Bob’s only defeat came on hurdle debut to 2020 Champion Bumper winner Ferny Hollow. An extremely tough task on debut for Bob Olinger especially when considering it was only his third trip to a racecourse.

We can’t talk about Bob Olinger without addressing his 7 length win at the Cheltenham Festival this year in the Ballymore. I would say the form of this race is rock solid with Gaillard Du Mesnil (2nd) & Bravemansgame (3rd) winning Grade one’s earlier in the season over hurdles. Both of these placed horses are top quality and will improve for a fence, but, Bob Olinger smashed them.

Of the high profile horses, Bob Olinger is the one that I am most looking forward to seeing return this season. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has already confirmed that Bob will be heading over fences this season and looking at the scope of him I would say jumping will be his game!

After the festival this year, the trainer admitted he was planning on sending Bob Olinger to the Supreme over 2miles but it was the team around him that persuaded him to send Bob to the Ballymore over 2 1/2 miles. I would imagine Bob Olinger would be kept to the mid range trip as there is currently no reason to go up or down in trip. If he performs as we’d expect then the Marsh would be the obvious target.

Looking at the opposition I see My Drogo is currently an 8/1 shot. Trainer, Dan Skelton, talked after My Drogo’s Grade one win at Aintree about the horse developing into a staying chaser and how he will be campaigned over the mid trips in the upcoming season. I’d imagine they will campaign him similarly to how Chantry House was this season; the Marsh as the Cheltenham target and then stepping up to the 3mile Grade one at Aintree. He’s a big, powerful individual who should take to fences like a duck to water.

With the form we know of at the moment I would be a big fan of Bob Olinger at 4/1 and think he will take all the beating. I would imagine Bob will be campaigned with tactical nous and arrive at the Marsh having scared off quite a few opponents, much like Shishkin did in the Arkle this season.

RyanAir Chase – Allaho 9/2

It has to be said that going into the RyanAir last season Allaho’s form was nothing to write home about. On his most recent start to this he had beaten Elimay by 3 lengths but was only conceding 2lbs out of the 7lbs she would usually get for her Mares allowance. Before that Allaho finished a 20 length away 4th in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over 3miles. He also finished 33 lengths back over 2 1/2 miles on seasonal debut in the John Durkin. My money was down for Allaho that day and it’s fair to say there was a lot of confusion on my face when he appeared out of the fog in last place (of those who finished) and somewhat 30 lengths back. He must have stopped for a drinks break!

Despite all of the above Allaho was sent off the 3/1 favourite for the 2021 RyanAir Chase and he duly obliged with a 12 length, Denman like, hammering. It’s worth noting that all of the big boys weren’t able to cope with the relentless gallop; Mister Fisher, Imperial Aura, Min, Samcro and Melon were all pulled up. Fakir D’oudaries was the only other single figure priced horse to finish.

Willie Mullins was interviewed after the race and when thinking out loud he talked about taking Allaho back to 2 miles because of his slick jumping and front running tactics. It makes sense. He clearly doesn’t stay 3 miles (we saw this in the RSA & the Savills Chase). There is also a clear want from Mullins to train a Champion Chase winner and with Chacun Pour Soir disappointing this year, Allaho could be the one to take the mantle for next year.

Allaho was then tried over 2 miles at the Punchestown festival, where, I thought he gave an encouraging run even though he was beaten by stablemate Chacun Pour Soir by 5 lengths. Nube Negra (2nd in this years Champion Chase) was a further 19 lengths behind Allaho.

The RyanAir looks the perfect race for another of Mullins’ stars; Energumene (10/1). He’s been massively impressive over fences and posted some really good times on the clock. 2 1/2miles looks like it’ll be his optimum trip and I’m sure the trainer will look to split these two up with the more experienced Allaho taking on the 2milers.

9/2 would be a fair price if we knew where Allaho was likely to end up. At the moment, I would want to see/hear anything which indicated the RyanAir as the target before I could get involved.

Stayers Hurdle – Klassical Dream 4/1

Klassical Dream gave us a Jesus like resurrection at the Punchestown festival when winning by 9 lengths over 3 miles after a 487 day break. He beat a really good field this day which included Cheltenham Stayers winner Flooring Porter and it has to be said that he dismantled the field with apparent ease.

Klassical Dream won 3 Grade one’s in his novice hurdle campaign which included the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. He disappointed in his first season in open company and was beaten convincingly on both starts before an injury kept him sidelined for the 487 days.

He is a quirky individual for sure and was never a straight forward ride. He adopted this tactic for a while of having his head carriage so low that his nose would nearly be scraping the ground; not ideal to see for a punter. However, his performance at Punchestown was much improved. He settled in mid division and didn’t over race, he was nimble over his obstacles and responded well to pressure from the jockey on the run in. By all accounts, extremely efficient.

This years winner at Cheltenham, Flooring Porter, was certainly not up to his best at Punchestown. He was pulled up and did not seem himself. For a horse that usually likes to dictate the pace from the front he, this day, missed the break and was urged to the front by jockey Jonathan Moore. From there he gave us a very lazy display, jumping away to his left at most hurdles and took a few hurdles with him on his way before eventually throwing the towel in.

Flooring Porter is now a 12/1 poke for the 2022 Stayers hurdle which is a very juicy price in my opinion, especially for a horse that will still be improving.

Thyme Hill is also am exciting prospect at 5/1. He had to miss the festival this year with an untimely injury in the build up to Cheltenham week. He did manage to come back to form when winning the Grade one Stayers hurdle at Aintree in April. He was unlucky to get pipped on the line by Paisley Park at Ascot and I really think he should’ve won that day, I would expect a big season from Thyme Hill this year.

The current 4/1 about Klassical Dream I would have to say isn’t a great offer. We have only seen him once since his 487 day break. He was a very keen racing individual prior to this injury which is not a typical characteristic of a Stayers winner. Whilst I accept Klassical Dream was exceptional at Punchestown, I am not sure how much we can read into the form with some underperforming. I think the 12/1 about Flooring Porter is a much better bet.

Albert Bartlett – Kilcruit 8/1

I’m beginning to get bored of writing about Kilcruit as he’s the favourite for all three novice hurdles and if you’ve read part one to this post then you’ll be bored of hearing about him too!

Tony Mullins (Ex trainer of Kilcruit) did claim that he would win the 2022 Albert Bartlett at the Paddy Power preview evening. To my eye Kilcruit is too classy and has too much of a turn of foot to go down this route. No disrespect to any other Albert Bartlett types of course!

It is difficult to pick out a likely runner in this race so early on but I really think Letsbeclearaboutit will have this as his Cheltenham aim. He was really impressive in his bumpers last year and is bred to stay further. The trainer, Gavin Cromwell, also knows what it takes to win a 3 mile Grade one over hurdles around Cheltenham! Currently 33/1 which I think is a more than fair offer.

I would also side with Journey With Me at 25/1. He won his Point to point over 3 miles on soft ground by 12 lengths (the field were well strung out) and then on his debut for his new yard he won by 13 lengths on heavy ground over 2m2f. It was also the same bumper that a certain Bob Olinger won the year before and Monalee a few years previous. It’s clearly a bumper That the trainer likes to use to start off his good ones.

From what the owners have said, Journey with Me seems to be a staying type with Grand Jury (same connections) being the speedier horse. It’s a risk but at 25/1 I am willing to take that risk.

Gold Cup – Monkfish 6/1

In the article so far 5/5 favourites are trained in Ireland & 4 of these are trained by Willie Mullins. The latest in his long line of stars is Monkfish, or as Nicky Henderson calls him, Fishpond/ Fishcake. If you haven’t seen that interview then I urge you to go and find it!

Monkfish fans, it is probably best to look away now as it isn’t going to make for pretty reading!

It can’t be argued that Fishcake’s performance of the season came at Leopardstown where he demolished rival Latest Exhibition by 11 lengths whilst still being on the bridle. That day he was slick over his fences, dominated the pace and did everything you wanted a future Gold Cup favourite to do. The issue is that this was over 2m5f not the undulating 3m2f of Cheltenham.

Monkfish’s performance a month later at Cheltenham in the Festival Novices Chase then left alot to be desired. He put in many jumps that even my fridge would be ashamed of and although he won by 6 lengths, the horses in behind aren’t up to the level required. The jump at the last fence is particularly worrying as it looked as if he puts in a really lazy, tired leap. How will he cope with an extra 2f?

He then came out at the Punchestown festival and was comfortably put in his place by the now retired Colreevy when beaten by 8 lengths, with seemingly no excuses from the yard may I add. All of this does not amount to a 6/1 favourite for the Gold Cup for me.

For me, I much prefer the angle of Chantry House at 20/1. I think he’s unexposed over the trip and looks like he will improve for the step up in distance. I have spoken about him in more depth in my horses to follow so give that a read to find out more. I would also give Eklat De Rire a chance at 66/1 as he was running a big race in the Festvial Novices Chase and has great form in hindsight.