With another successful Cheltenham out of the way and the curtains drawing on Royal Ascot, it seems like the perfect time to start the pilgrimage to the greatest show on turf.
As a side note, I have tried to keep short priced horses out of these lists to the best I can.
‘Must’ bets
Bets I would suggest you need in your book if you don’t already.
Brandy Love – Mares Hurdle 7/1
The brilliantly named Brandy Love was vying for favouritism in this years Mares Novice hurdle at Cheltenham before drifting in the market due to the imminent NR.
Only a stone bruise, this mare followed up with an 8 length schooling over Cheltenham festival winner Love Envoi at Fairyhouse in April. I have no doubt that BL would’ve won at Cheltenham and would therefore currently be much shorter for 2023 by now.
Going left handed is a must for Brandy as she has a tendency to shift to her left. She showed that in the Solerina around Fairyhouse where she was beaten by her stablemate Allegorie De Vassy, who is another classy mare from the Mullins camp. Brandy was the best horse that day and was the choice of stable jockey Paul Townend, which shows how he ranks them. She wasn’t stopping at the line that day and will love the Cheltenham course and trip.
Being trained by the master of the mares, and with all current form I think BRANDY LOVE is a horse that must be in every antepost book @ 7/1 for the Mares Hurdle.
Three Stripe Life – Turners Novices Chase 16/1
Three Stripe Life is somewhat of an underrated horse in my opinion. He ran in 5 Grade one’s last season with a form of 22213. That is seriously consistent, and even more so when you consider that the first two Grade one’s were over a trip too short for him.
Pinpointing a race can be difficult antepost but I would say the mid-distance looks perfect for him. The trainer (Gordon Elliott) loves the mid-distance novice race at Cheltenham. He’s had 4 runners in the last 5 years, if you include Envoi Allen, and his form in the race reads 311F (worth noting that Envoi was sent off 4/9F). Whereas, Elliott, doesn’t have as much of a love affair with the 3mile novice race. Only 5 runners in the last 10 years and one placing isn’t the kind of record that would fill you with hope.
TSL is clearly a top level animal and should command respect. 16/1 is cracking value for a Grade one winning novice hurdler in a race that will most likely seriously cut up. He’s double the price of Sir Gerhard, and in my opinion, there are lots of question marks over his final destination.
Ahoy Senor – Gold Cup 10/1
Firstly, I would like to say that I really think this horse needs better ground. If you look through his form, the best runs have all come on at least ‘Good to Soft’. In usual Cheltenham conditions, the ground come Gold Cup day will be absolutely ideal for him.
Taking this theory further, he ran a really good race in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham this year, on bottomless ground, staying longer than the proverbial mother-in-law. He then trounced Cheltenham winner L’Homme Presse when they met at Aintree on fresher ground by 18 lengths.
Second season chasers have the best record in the Gold Cup and at the prices Ahoy Senor stands out to me as the best value.
Better Days Ahead – Champion Bumper 20/1
Before you scroll past, I am fully aware that advising a bet on the Champion Bumper in the summer is crazy but this is a seriously talented animal. This son of Milan achieved an impressive RPR of 95 in his PTP win and was subsequently sold for £350,000 to Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud (owners of American Mike, Zanahiyr etc).
With only being 4years old currently, I would expect that BDA will be kept to bumpers next season and will take high rank in that division. Gordon loves the Champion Bumper and will target horses towards this race from a long way out and I think Better Days Ahead will be his number one. Gordon will use the bumper at Down Royal during the October meeting for his main bumper candidate, keep an eye out for entries on that.
Gaillard Du Mesnil – National Hunt Chase 7/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil has quickly become ‘banker’ material for me. He achieved a career best RPR of 161 on his last run of the season, the Irish National, when finishing 3rd giving massive weight away. The RPR is important to note here because 161 is good enough to win the National Hunt Chase 9 years out of the last 10. The only loss would’ve been this year to Stattler who achieved 164. GDM would’ve finished second.
It must be noted that his career high RPR was achieved over a marathon trip which shows he will have no issue staying, and clearly improved for the trip.
He’s also still a young horse at only 6 years old. He’s achieved a lot and gained vital experience which he will have in hand over other contenders. The stats would be in his favour too as 7 year olds have the best record in the race, winning 5 of the last 10 runnings. As GDM did not win last season over fences he will remain a novice chaser for the upcoming season which therefore qualifies him for this race.
To me, he’s not got to improve that much next season to be considered a ‘good thing’. The race has changed code of recent years and the classier horses are coming to the fore I.e. Galvin & Stattler. GDM would fit perfectly into that bracket as he is already a Grade one winning hurdler, and also finished third in the Irish National & the Brown Advisory Novices Chase.
‘Speculative’ bets
Let’s have some fun… bets that could look excellent come 2023.
An Tobar – Ballymore Novices Hurdle 25/1
This one was seriously close to being placed in the first list, but, novice hurdlers can be tricky to work out and so I have decided to place him on the subs bench, like Jack Grealish, he’s a super sub to have in your team.
This half-brother to the sadly missed ELLE EST BELLE was very impressive in his sole PTP start where he earned an RPR of 94, again, very high. He looked the perfect blend of speed and stamina that day, injecting the pace between 2 & 3 out before winning by an eased down 20 lengths.
2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th & 7th have all come out and won since. The horse in 7th won his PTP by 12 lengths and he was beaten by just over 30 lengths by An Tobar.
Now trained Henry De Bromhead, and already owned by Robcur, we would think they would go down the Ballymore route; like they have with Bob Olinger and Journey with Me in the last two seasons.
Walking on Air – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 50/1
Walking on Air is a horse that I really feel Henderson is taking his time with. He was quoted as saying “He’s nice, but had some hold-ups – no big problems – and he’s going to be spectacular. He’ll jump a fence and might be very exciting in a year or two” after his debut hurdle win at Newbury.
He’s a horse that there were whispers about in the early part of the season and that Newbury run showed what he can do. A 13 length demolition over his closest rival secured him as a single figure price for the Ballymore Novices hurdle at Cheltenham.
He wasn’t seen after that run until the Aintree festival due to a few niggly problems, where he ran no sort of a race and never travelled a yard. As I said, I really think they have been wrapping him in cotton wool as they know he will be a smashing chaser. The quote above would agree with this sentiment. I really think this lad could be running in a Gold Cup later in his career.
Nicky does refer to the fact that he thinks WOA would need a trip and would be a stayer, but I wouldn’t put anyone of having a look at the 50/1 also available for the shorter Turners Novices Chase.
Jet Powered – Supreme Novices Hurdle 20/1
This son of Jet Away was described as an “Absolute Superstar” by his PTP trainer Cormac Farrell. Having seen his sole PTP run (an 8 length victory – RPR 93) it was how easily he picked up and went past the leader that impressed me, despite slow jumps at 2 & 3 out.
Since that day, Jet Powered has been purchased for 350,000gns (£367,500 roughly) by the Donnelly’s and moved to Nicky Henderson. With Henderson’s usual patterns, he would tend to send any top Novices to the Supreme, a race he likes a lot; he has trained 3 winners of in the last 7 runnings and trained the 1-2 this year.
Success also runs in the family for Jet Powered as his half sister WESTERNER LADY won 10 out of 17 starts and was clearly a talented mare.
Finding the winner of the Supreme this far our is an extremely tough ask. I have to admit, Jet Powered is shorter than I thought he would be but, at 20/1, I still think he’s worth taking. There has been plenty of money around for this horse which is a positive and I’m sure that this price will look good next season.
Journey With Me – Brown Advisory Novices Chase 25/1
I really am a fan of this price. Journey With Me always looked a 3mile chaser and he’s made for this race. To my eye, it looked like the hurdles were getting in the way last year and he didn’t really know how to jump them. Very awkward and gangly. Fences will bring out the best of him.
I would think this target will be pretty nailed on too (if he’s as good as they hope) as he was described as a “galloper” for most of last season and was then finally stepped up to 3 miles at the Punchestown festival. I’d put a line through that final performance though, he clearly wasn’t right, and the trainers strike rate at the time was beyond abysmal.
He does have some nice form in the book over hurdles, however. Beating Minella Crooner, Kilcruit, Falcon Eight, Choice of words & O’Toole is all relatively decent form. It’s also easy to forget that he fell at the last when about to finish third in the Ballymore behind Sir Gerhard & Three Stripe Life. It’s a good run considering he was up with the pace the whole way and was just beaten by the two horses with a quicker turn of foot.
Recap:
‘Must’ bets
- Brandy Love – Mares Hurdle 7/1
- Three Stripe Life – Turners Novices Chase 16/1
- Ahoy Senor – Gold Cup 10/1
- Better Days Ahead – Champion Bumper 20/1
- Gaillard Du Mesnil – National Hunt Chase 7/1
‘Speculative’ bets
- An Tobar – Ballymore Novices hurdle 25/1
- Walking on Air – Brown Advisory Novice Chase 50/1
- Jet Powered – Supreme Novices hurdle 20/1
- Journey With Me – Brown Advisory Novices Chase 25/1
Horse Racing Highlights 