This week we are taking a look at the remaining 2 days of the Cheltenham festival and assessing the chances of the current ante post favourites in the Grade one’s. As before, all prices are taken from Bet365’s ante post markets and are correct of time of writing.
I have skipped the Triumph hurdle because I don’t have enough information about the Juveniles coming through. I will aim to get a full write up done of the race once I have more information on purchases etc.
Marsh Novice Chase – Bob Olinger 4/1
Current ante post favourite Bob Olinger was mightily impressive in his novice hurdle campaign last year winning on 3 out of 4 starts and picking up two Grade ones in the process. Bob’s only defeat came on hurdle debut to 2020 Champion Bumper winner Ferny Hollow. An extremely tough task on debut for Bob Olinger especially when considering it was only his third trip to a racecourse.
We can’t talk about Bob Olinger without addressing his 7 length win at the Cheltenham Festival this year in the Ballymore. I would say the form of this race is rock solid with Gaillard Du Mesnil (2nd) & Bravemansgame (3rd) winning Grade one’s earlier in the season over hurdles. Both of these placed horses are top quality and will improve for a fence, but, Bob Olinger smashed them.
Of the high profile horses, Bob Olinger is the one that I am most looking forward to seeing return this season. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has already confirmed that Bob will be heading over fences this season and looking at the scope of him I would say jumping will be his game!
After the festival this year, the trainer admitted he was planning on sending Bob Olinger to the Supreme over 2miles but it was the team around him that persuaded him to send Bob to the Ballymore over 2 1/2 miles. I would imagine Bob Olinger would be kept to the mid range trip as there is currently no reason to go up or down in trip. If he performs as we’d expect then the Marsh would be the obvious target.
Looking at the opposition I see My Drogo is currently an 8/1 shot. Trainer, Dan Skelton, talked after My Drogo’s Grade one win at Aintree about the horse developing into a staying chaser and how he will be campaigned over the mid trips in the upcoming season. I’d imagine they will campaign him similarly to how Chantry House was this season; the Marsh as the Cheltenham target and then stepping up to the 3mile Grade one at Aintree. He’s a big, powerful individual who should take to fences like a duck to water.
With the form we know of at the moment I would be a big fan of Bob Olinger at 4/1 and think he will take all the beating. I would imagine Bob will be campaigned with tactical nous and arrive at the Marsh having scared off quite a few opponents, much like Shishkin did in the Arkle this season.
RyanAir Chase – Allaho 9/2
It has to be said that going into the RyanAir last season Allaho’s form was nothing to write home about. On his most recent start to this he had beaten Elimay by 3 lengths but was only conceding 2lbs out of the 7lbs she would usually get for her Mares allowance. Before that Allaho finished a 20 length away 4th in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over 3miles. He also finished 33 lengths back over 2 1/2 miles on seasonal debut in the John Durkin. My money was down for Allaho that day and it’s fair to say there was a lot of confusion on my face when he appeared out of the fog in last place (of those who finished) and somewhat 30 lengths back. He must have stopped for a drinks break!
Despite all of the above Allaho was sent off the 3/1 favourite for the 2021 RyanAir Chase and he duly obliged with a 12 length, Denman like, hammering. It’s worth noting that all of the big boys weren’t able to cope with the relentless gallop; Mister Fisher, Imperial Aura, Min, Samcro and Melon were all pulled up. Fakir D’oudaries was the only other single figure priced horse to finish.
Willie Mullins was interviewed after the race and when thinking out loud he talked about taking Allaho back to 2 miles because of his slick jumping and front running tactics. It makes sense. He clearly doesn’t stay 3 miles (we saw this in the RSA & the Savills Chase). There is also a clear want from Mullins to train a Champion Chase winner and with Chacun Pour Soir disappointing this year, Allaho could be the one to take the mantle for next year.
Allaho was then tried over 2 miles at the Punchestown festival, where, I thought he gave an encouraging run even though he was beaten by stablemate Chacun Pour Soir by 5 lengths. Nube Negra (2nd in this years Champion Chase) was a further 19 lengths behind Allaho.
The RyanAir looks the perfect race for another of Mullins’ stars; Energumene (10/1). He’s been massively impressive over fences and posted some really good times on the clock. 2 1/2miles looks like it’ll be his optimum trip and I’m sure the trainer will look to split these two up with the more experienced Allaho taking on the 2milers.
9/2 would be a fair price if we knew where Allaho was likely to end up. At the moment, I would want to see/hear anything which indicated the RyanAir as the target before I could get involved.
Stayers Hurdle – Klassical Dream 4/1
Klassical Dream gave us a Jesus like resurrection at the Punchestown festival when winning by 9 lengths over 3 miles after a 487 day break. He beat a really good field this day which included Cheltenham Stayers winner Flooring Porter and it has to be said that he dismantled the field with apparent ease.
Klassical Dream won 3 Grade one’s in his novice hurdle campaign which included the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. He disappointed in his first season in open company and was beaten convincingly on both starts before an injury kept him sidelined for the 487 days.
He is a quirky individual for sure and was never a straight forward ride. He adopted this tactic for a while of having his head carriage so low that his nose would nearly be scraping the ground; not ideal to see for a punter. However, his performance at Punchestown was much improved. He settled in mid division and didn’t over race, he was nimble over his obstacles and responded well to pressure from the jockey on the run in. By all accounts, extremely efficient.
This years winner at Cheltenham, Flooring Porter, was certainly not up to his best at Punchestown. He was pulled up and did not seem himself. For a horse that usually likes to dictate the pace from the front he, this day, missed the break and was urged to the front by jockey Jonathan Moore. From there he gave us a very lazy display, jumping away to his left at most hurdles and took a few hurdles with him on his way before eventually throwing the towel in.
Flooring Porter is now a 12/1 poke for the 2022 Stayers hurdle which is a very juicy price in my opinion, especially for a horse that will still be improving.
Thyme Hill is also am exciting prospect at 5/1. He had to miss the festival this year with an untimely injury in the build up to Cheltenham week. He did manage to come back to form when winning the Grade one Stayers hurdle at Aintree in April. He was unlucky to get pipped on the line by Paisley Park at Ascot and I really think he should’ve won that day, I would expect a big season from Thyme Hill this year.
The current 4/1 about Klassical Dream I would have to say isn’t a great offer. We have only seen him once since his 487 day break. He was a very keen racing individual prior to this injury which is not a typical characteristic of a Stayers winner. Whilst I accept Klassical Dream was exceptional at Punchestown, I am not sure how much we can read into the form with some underperforming. I think the 12/1 about Flooring Porter is a much better bet.
Albert Bartlett – Kilcruit 8/1
I’m beginning to get bored of writing about Kilcruit as he’s the favourite for all three novice hurdles and if you’ve read part one to this post then you’ll be bored of hearing about him too!
Tony Mullins (Ex trainer of Kilcruit) did claim that he would win the 2022 Albert Bartlett at the Paddy Power preview evening. To my eye Kilcruit is too classy and has too much of a turn of foot to go down this route. No disrespect to any other Albert Bartlett types of course!
It is difficult to pick out a likely runner in this race so early on but I really think Letsbeclearaboutit will have this as his Cheltenham aim. He was really impressive in his bumpers last year and is bred to stay further. The trainer, Gavin Cromwell, also knows what it takes to win a 3 mile Grade one over hurdles around Cheltenham! Currently 33/1 which I think is a more than fair offer.
I would also side with Journey With Me at 25/1. He won his Point to point over 3 miles on soft ground by 12 lengths (the field were well strung out) and then on his debut for his new yard he won by 13 lengths on heavy ground over 2m2f. It was also the same bumper that a certain Bob Olinger won the year before and Monalee a few years previous. It’s clearly a bumper That the trainer likes to use to start off his good ones.
From what the owners have said, Journey with Me seems to be a staying type with Grand Jury (same connections) being the speedier horse. It’s a risk but at 25/1 I am willing to take that risk.
Gold Cup – Monkfish 6/1
In the article so far 5/5 favourites are trained in Ireland & 4 of these are trained by Willie Mullins. The latest in his long line of stars is Monkfish, or as Nicky Henderson calls him, Fishpond/ Fishcake. If you haven’t seen that interview then I urge you to go and find it!
Monkfish fans, it is probably best to look away now as it isn’t going to make for pretty reading!
It can’t be argued that Fishcake’s performance of the season came at Leopardstown where he demolished rival Latest Exhibition by 11 lengths whilst still being on the bridle. That day he was slick over his fences, dominated the pace and did everything you wanted a future Gold Cup favourite to do. The issue is that this was over 2m5f not the undulating 3m2f of Cheltenham.
Monkfish’s performance a month later at Cheltenham in the Festival Novices Chase then left alot to be desired. He put in many jumps that even my fridge would be ashamed of and although he won by 6 lengths, the horses in behind aren’t up to the level required. The jump at the last fence is particularly worrying as it looked as if he puts in a really lazy, tired leap. How will he cope with an extra 2f?
He then came out at the Punchestown festival and was comfortably put in his place by the now retired Colreevy when beaten by 8 lengths, with seemingly no excuses from the yard may I add. All of this does not amount to a 6/1 favourite for the Gold Cup for me.
For me, I much prefer the angle of Chantry House at 20/1. I think he’s unexposed over the trip and looks like he will improve for the step up in distance. I have spoken about him in more depth in my horses to follow so give that a read to find out more. I would also give Eklat De Rire a chance at 66/1 as he was running a big race in the Festvial Novices Chase and has great form in hindsight.
Horse Racing Highlights 