A GAME OF ODDS pt. 1

The National hunt season is now upon us and in full flow. Whether it’s the big grade one chasers, novice hurdlers or even handicappers and bumper horses, everyone’s got something to look forward to!

I personally always love this time of year because I look through my antepost portfolio with enthusiasm and excitement. I often like to think that juicy antepost multiples ‘keep me warm’ throughout the Winter.

This week we are feasted to brilliant cards at both Punchestown & Cheltenham with a host of graded races, including the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle. This is always a great early indication on potential Champion Hurdle candidates.

Friday 2:20 Cheltenham

It is truly abysmal that a novice Chase at Cheltenham (at this time of year) has only 2 runners. A match bet between MY DROGO (4/11) vs Gin On Lime (9/4). We all know how much the Dan Skelton team think of My Drogo and so it would be bitterly disappointing if he is not able to put Gin On Lime in her place, especially considering she is actually having to give My Drogo 1lb instead of getting her 7lb mares allowance. We will learn a lot about My Drogo’s likely Cheltenham Festival aim after the race. The Marsh is the most likely race currently with him being an 8/1 shot for the race.

Gin On Lime is a very fair mare and if it wasn’t for the swing in the weights I would be a lot more positive on her chances. She is much better going left handed and jumps a fence with great fluency. For that reason I think she will be seen to great effect in the Mares Chase at the festival and the current 14/1 (possibly bigger after Friday) is a decent bet.

Saturday 12:00 Punchestown

I just wanted to touch on this race briefly because I wanted to compare it to the Cheltenham race above. Bob Olinger, the superstar of the Cheltenham festival makes his return in a 14 runner beginners Chase. In comparison this makes us British look rather measly. Is there any wonder why the Irish come over and clean up all our Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival?!

Saturday 12:30 Cheltenham

The first race on the card on Saturday sees the return of Chepstow winner and Paul Nicholls trained MAGISTRATO (7/4) who on debut in France was second to Porticello. He is now trained by Gary Moore and is the 16/1 second fav for the Triumph hurdle.

On his debut for Nicholls, Magistrato raced keenly from the front before settling down to win by 12lengths to Skelton’s Rocky Man. Magistrato responded really well to pressure and looked to have a great turn of foot to put distance between himself and Rocky Man in a matter of strides. I was surprised to see he is a current 7/4 shot for the race on Saturday as I thought he would be closer to evens. He is one I’m really looking forward to seeing again.

Sunday 2:20 Cheltenham

It has to be said the Put The Kettle On is one of the most underrated race horses currently in training. She was sent off a 17/2 shot in her Champion Chase win last season despite collecting an Arkle Novices Chase & a Schloer Chase on the run up to the big one in March.

However, it is another that has taken my eye. NUBE NEGRA (2/1) hit a bit of trouble in running and got boxed in on the turn to home. I do think a change of tactics and better positioning and he would’ve won that race. Dan Skelton will have learned a lot from that run and I’m sure he won’t make the same mistake again on Sunday. Nube Negra also has a great record fresh, and with the Skelton team in fine form I think he can reverse the result with PTKO.

Sunday 1:30 Punchestown

The declarations and betting hasn’t opened for this mares hurdle yet and so I will keep this one brief but I really fancy HEAVEN HELP US here. She is officially the highest rated in the race with a rating of 144. The interesting part is she is in receipt of 11lbs from Mares novice hurdle winner Telmesomethinggirl and 4lb from Gauloise. Due to the less fashionable connections of this Coral Cup winner I would hope we could get a slight price about her.

Sunday 2:05 Punchestown

ECHOES IN RAIN (1/1) is a horse I have been really excited about seeing back this season. Currently rated 150 over hurdles (including allowances) she is one of the top novices to remain over hurdles for the upcoming season. She won two Grade 2’s last year and managed to pick up a Grade 1 at the Punchestown festival. Her performance of the season was certainly beating M C Muldoon by 15 lengths whilst pretty much still being on the bridle.

Echoes in Rain is currently rated 12lbs inferior to her stablemate Saldier (3/1) but yet she seems to be the number one dart for the Mullins team according to the betting. EIR opened on the betting at 9/4 and was backed into 10/11 with some bookies. This makes me think either Saldier is not running or Echoes in Rain is the real deal!

As for the rest of the field, Abacadabras struggled with his jumping at Aintree and I’m not sure the forms up to much anyway and Sharjah will be needing his first run. If she does manage to put this lot away then I’m sure the general 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle will be slashed.

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