The biggest week of the year is fast approaching, excitement is building and the ‘shrewds’ are coming out of hibernation. Perusing through the ante post markets is a dismal affair and finding any value is energy sapping; but fear not, as for the next 4 weeks I will be scanning through the markets to bring to you the best value on offer!
When looking for value in races the first thing I like to do is evaluate how strong or weak a favourite is as they are the horses propping up the prices for those in behind. My first find comes on the Tuesday in the Mares hurdle. So, whilst I respect Telmesomethinggirl, I think she’s vulnerable.
Telmesomethinggirl has run twice this season and finished 5th & 3rd. Now she has given plenty of weight away on both occasions and she was certainly the best horse in the race at Leopardstown but she’s just not for me. Rachel gave her a peach of a ride in the Mares novice hurdle last year & the race fell apart in my opinion.
Outside of Telmesomethinggirl there is not an awful lot in the market that looks to have the star quality required to win a graded race at the festival. It is a poor mares hurdle in my opinion and a very open race.
So, I have come down on the side of the Gordon Elliot trained QUEENS BROOK. I think she is overpriced at 16/1 best price.
Before I put my case forward, I will just read you the quote from Elliot’s November stable tour. “It wouldn’t shock me if she won the mares’ hurdle at Cheltenham. She has loads of class and that’s her aim”.
Now, it’s not very often that Gordon would talk up a horse like this, actually suggesting his mare (who is rated as low as 131) could win the Mares hurdle. It also needs to be noted that the trainer won this same race last year with Black Tears so he knows what kind of mare he needs to win the race. There’s no doubt in my mind that the 2021 renewal was stronger than what we will see in 4 weeks time.
Queens Brook has some really nice form in the book too. As a bumper horse she finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. She was only 5 lengths behind Ferny Hollow & 3 lengths behind Appreciate it. That is form of a very high standard.
In her novice season it’s well documented that she didn’t live up to Elliots expectations. She ran 3 times that season and whilst she wasn’t disgraced, Elliot has said she wasn’t herself.
We have seen her twice this season. She was beaten narrowly first time up in her “pipe opener” by Lunar Display (who is a decent horse in her own right) after a 330 day break. A decent effort in my book.
Next she faced Ciel de Neige, who she saw off by 4 lengths. It was workmanlike but the pursuers were left trailing by at least 10 lengths back. Ciel de neige has done an awful lot to hold up the form as he’s won 3 times since and is now rated 148 over fences!
In October 2020 Elliot was quoted as saying “I’d say when she gets two-and-a-half miles she’s going to be class, in a true run race” and I really think the race will be run to suit her at Cheltenham. I’d imagine Stormy Ireland will set a brisk pace at the front, and Queens Brook will stay on strongly up the hill, just like she did in the 2020 Champion Bumper.
With Elliot confirming Queens Brook is fit and on track for the Mares hurdle, the 16/1 is great value. She will be bang there, and as Elliot said I wouldn’t be surprised if she won it!
Selection – QUEENS BROOK EW 16/1 – Mares Hurdle.
Patrick McCann
Horse Racing Highlights 