In today’s post we will be talking about the current favourites for the Grade one’s at Cheltenham 2022 over the first two days and analysing their chances and the likely opposition. All prices are correct of time of writing and for a matter of ease all pricing has been taken from the Bet365 ante post markets. Let’s get into it!
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Kilcruit 5/1
Going into the Champion Bumper last year Kilcruit (10/11f) & Sir Gerhard (2/1) were the two most talked about bumper horses on either side of the Irish Sea. Because of this hype there was a sense of a grudge match between the two and fans of both became embroiled in a debate similar to that you would find in talks before an Aston Villa vs Birmingham city game!
It was very exciting and because of a marvellous ride given by Rachael Blackmore, Sir Gerhard came out the victor with a staying on Kilcruit following half a length behind. But then, at Punchestown, Kilcruit would go on to reverse this form in style with a 6 length beating of Sir Gerhard (who ended up finishing third behind what looks like a very smart Crawford horse in O’Toole).
It has to be said that Sir Gerhard was not at his best this day and was almost certainly still hungover from the Cheltenham celebrations just a month previous. Blame the Guinness!
Credit: https://www.theirishfield.ie/punchestown-wednesday-kilcruit-lands-killer-punch-618761/
Willie Mullins currently holds all the aces as he trains both Kilcruit & Sir Gerhard but to me SG looks the more out and out 2 miler. I would be aware that we thought the same last year with Ferny Hollow & Appreciate it; we know how that turned out!
Outside of these two there will be contenders who pop up that either didn’t have much of a bumper campaign, were kept at home, or will improve for going over hurdles. Classic Getaway (20/1) Jonbon (10/1) I am maximus (50/1) Hubrisko (33/1) will be likely protagonists.
In my opinion there are too many question marks over the final destination of Kilcruit to be taking the 5/1 6 months out. The 13/2 generally available about Sir Gerhard is a much more attractive priced.
Arkle Novices Chase – Appreciate it 3/1
Appreciate it was by far the most impressive Supreme winner that I can remember and won by an astounding 24 lengths. The opposition wasn’t up to much but he can only beat what’s put in front of him, right?
There were talks earlier in his career about becoming a staying chaser but that’s got to be out of the window since that Supreme display. Mullins has never won the Champion Chase and so I’m sure he will be desperate to make Appreciate it into a live wire, and so the Arkle would be the obvious route.
Looking at the current market we have My Drogo (8/1) Bob Olinger (10/1) Ferny Hollow (10/1) Quilixios (12/1) Ballyadam (16/1). Taking an educated guess I would think the only horse that might turn up here would be Quilixios and 5 year olds have a poor record in this race. The others look set for 2 1/2miles and I would hope Ferny Hollow stayed over hurdles for a Champion Hurdle tilt due to the nature of his injury and probable fragility.
Whilst I think 3/1 is a fair price – we did not see Appreciate it at the Punchestown festival so before I was getting involved in the I would want to know he was all okay and hear about any setbacks he might have suffered which ruled him out of the Punchestown festival.
Champion Hurdle – Honeysuckle 7/4
Honeysuckle, the defending champion, is a current 7/4 to win the 2022 edition which on the surface sounds short. A short price however does not always reflect little value or a bad price.
So, why is it not a bad price? Well looking down the Champion Hurdle market you would have to say it looks weaker than last year. The contenders from last year were solidly put in their place and the majority of the novices from last year you’d expect to be going chasing. Appreciate it and Bob Olinger are second and third favourites and both of these look tailor made for fences. Ferny Hollow has bags of ability but there are question marks over his Cheltenham destination and if he is still in the same form as the horse that we saw beat Bob Olinger on seasonal debut last year.
Echoes in Rain would be my horse that would possibly spring a surprise. A nutter in the early part of the season but her form is solid once she learnt to settle slightly. 4 wins from 5 last season and handed out a beating to Royal Ascot second, M C Muldoon (15 lengths) & Cheltenham and Aintree festival winner, Belfast Banter (8 lengths). Currently rated 143 (150 with her mares allowance) she clearly needs to improve but she looks like one who could.
The 7/4 seems fair to me considering she was sent off 11/10 for her win this year. If she gets there in the same form it will take a very special performance to beat her.
Mares Hurdle – Echoes in Rain 7/1
I have briefly touched on the form in the section above regarding Echoes in Rain and I do really like her, I think she’s got loads of potential. My issue is I just don’t trust her currently. I also think 2 1/2miles will stretch her, ideally she wants a strong pace over 2miles.
If we go back to January and we read the race summary at Punchestown it will explain what I mean about not trusting her. “Raced freely, led, soon clear, went well clear when mistake 4th, 15 lengths ahead halfway”. She went off like a scolded cat and I was extremely surprised to see her finish the race in anything other than last place. Furthermore in 4 out of her 5 races last season the description of the race describes how keen she was. 2 1/2miles is the last thing she needs!
It’s worth mentioning that the Mares hurdle market at the moment is looking pretty competitive. Concertista (8/1) should probably be favourite after being beaten by a nose last year. She’s got all the form in the book, and with last years winner (Black Tears) now being retired for breeding it only enhances the chances of Concertista. Gauloise (10/1) was very impressive at Punchestown and Willie Mullins has said he’s found the key to training her. Telmesomethinggirl (10/1) disappointed last time over 3miles but was almighty in the Mares novice hurdle and so cannot be forgotten.
7/1 is just not a price that gets me excited and I would be much more prepared to take the 12/1 about the Champion Hurdle than I would about the Mares hurdle.
Ballymore Novices hurdle – Kilcruit 4/1
It might have sounded above that I was rather one sided in the debate of Kilcruit vs Sir Gerhard. That’s partly because I am, but also because I think Kilcruit will make into a useful 2 1/2 miler. He seems to be doing all of his best work at the end of his races. If you take the Champion Bumper as an example, Rachel Blackmore kicked on when turning for home on Sir Gerhard and that injection of pace left Kilcruit slightly flat footed. Realistically he did very well to get to within 1/2 a length of Sir Gerhard who looked like he would win in a canter turning for home.
Taking the Future stars bumper race at Leopardstown it was Kilcruits staying power that was shown to great effect. They went a good gallop that day and the race fell apart but because of Kilcruits natural stamina he was able to win by an impressive 12 lengths.
I think it’s undoubtable that Kilcruit is the right favourite for the race, and 4/1 could look big come the day depending on what turns up. Sir Gerhard (10/1) & Jonbon (12/1) I think will be Supreme bound but of course there could be others to crop up during the course of the season.
Festival Novices Chase – Galopin Des Champs 8/1
If you’ve read my horses to follow guide already then you’ll already know how highly I rate Galopin Des Champs. It was at this stage last year where we were talking about a 10/1 Monkfish (for the same race) and deciding the value in that. Monkfish was sent off 1/4f for the 2021 Festival Novices Chase and I would argue that Galopin Des Champs’ form is better than Monkfish’s was this time last year.
In preparation for this article I went back and re-watched both the Punchestown & Cheltenham runs and I think they are a better watch than I first thought. If all my winners ran like GDC did on them days then I would be living a stress free life!
I’m under no illusion that GDC has a really tough task on his hooves and will likely face stiff opposition from the likes of Bravemansgame who I think will improve for fences and possibly My Drogo if the Skeltons decide to go this route (they did mention staying chases after his Aintree win). I do think GDC could be special though and on all known form has a great chance. To me 8/1 is overpriced.
Champion Chase – Shishkin 6/4
There’s no denying that this Shishkin is one of the most talented horses in training and looks and could follow in the footsteps of the Henderson trained greats, Sprinter Sacre & Altior.
Playing devils advocate; It has to be said that Shishkin has not been tested yet however over fences. Last season he pretty much scared off all opposition and ended up beating the same calibre of horse time and time again. This calibre of horse I would say is below grade one level and certainly not up to a Champion Chase.
However, Shishkin was absolutely smashing his opponents and was more often than not still on the bridle. There is a recent interview on the Unibet racing Twitter page with Nicky Henderson where he claims that Shishkin has summered really well and is now bigger than Altior, he sounded rather excited. I would obviously take this with a pinch of salt but the thought of a fully grown and filled out Shishkin over 2 miles makes me h*rny.
I would say Energumene would be a great bet at 5/1 but I really think he will end up in the RyanAir and will be seen to best effect over 2 1/2miles.
Put the Kettle on’s price is wrong at 14/1. She’s a horse who is always under appreciated in the market and is a real Cheltenham specialist. As an Arkle, Schloer & Champion Chase winner she should not be a double figures price.
It’s difficult on what to make of Shishkin’s price but it has to be said that he’s the idea of a banker for the a lot of punters. I will let you make your own mind up on this one.
Credit: https://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/12247795/sublime-shishkin-cruises-to-arkle-at-cheltenham
Champion Bumper – Classic Getaway 8/1
I will start this section by saying I haven’t really dipped by toe into the Champion Bumper yet but it’s only August so cut me some slack. I only have Classic Getaway backed so the following theory could be slightly skewed. Take it with a pinch of salt but I would love to hear your opinion on the matter!
Both Willie & Patrick Mullins have said that Classic Getaway will go hurdling next season but… what do they know?!
Cheveley Park Stud have won the last 3 renewals of this race (Envoi Allen, Ferny Hollow & Sir Gerhard) so it’s likely they will want to keep that run going. Classic Getaway, who cost a measly £570,000, won his first bumper at Tipperary by 15lengths in stylish fashion. That victory prompted the owners to say that Classic Getaway was way out of the league of their other expensive purchase, Grangeclare West (£430,000). Because of the above I think they will keep him to bumpers as he’s their best chance at keeping that winning streak going.
It’s tough to pick out any potential dangers as we don’t know which horses will go hurdling or not. Dysart Dynamo (14/1) was really impressive on debut and beat some good horses but I fear he will be sent hurdling. I don’t think we can call 8/1 for a Bumper race this far out about a horse that we’ve been told is going hurdling is a good price!
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